Auburn lost a hard-fought battle to the second-ranked LSU Tigers Saturday night by a score of 12-10.  A win would have shocked the college football world and possibly turned their season around.  With the loss, the Tigers are now 1-3 on the season with a much needed off week upcoming.  The next contest is an October 6 matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks, a team with its own early season troubles.

     On the bright side, the contest was much closer than just about anyone expected.  The Tigers showed no signs of being a team ready to give up on their season.  Now the team must try to take the lessons learned from this gutsy performance and build on it.  But will they?  That question can only be answered on the field, but Chizik thinks his team still has a lot of fight left.

     “We didn’t finish,” Chizik said.  “There will be a day when we will.  We will continue to grind and work until we can.”

     Defensively, Auburn was much improved and looked like a team ready to challenge its SEC competition.  The Tigers held LSU to 169 yards passing and 182 yards on the ground.  More importantly, Auburn showed improved tackling ability and held LSU to just ten offensive points.  The Auburn offense gave up two points on a safety early in the game.

     Offensively, however, the problems continue.  Make no mistake, LSU is a very sound and talented defensive team, but 183 yards of offense won’t win many games.  Auburn managed just nine first downs in the contest and was held scoreless in the second half.

     Kiehl Frazier was 13 of 22 passing for 97 yards and the Tigers could manage only 86 rushing yards.  Frazier also threw two interceptions, the second of which was a desperation pass on the final play of the game.

     So, where does Auburn go from here?  Can they overcome the first 1-3 start since 1998 and salvage a respectable season.  Let’s take a look ahead at the schedule and see how the year might play out for the Tigers.

Three Sure Wins

     Three of the remaining eight games fall into the certain victory category.  Auburn will host New Mexico St. on November 3^rd and Alabama A&M on November 17^th.  Neither opponent will challenge the Tigers.  The fact that both games come late in the season could also prove to be beneficial.  The New Mexico State contest falls on the week before Auburn hosts Georgia and the Tigers play Alabama A&M the week before traveling to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama.  This, in effect, gives the coaching staff extra time to prepare for its two biggest rivals and the players a chance to heal up from the long season.

     At this point, Vanderbilt on October 20^th also looks like a certain victory.  The Commodores were blown out by Georgia Saturday night and have a 1-3 record.  It appears the claims that James Franklin had the program headed in a new direction were overblown and Vanderbilt is not yet ready to be a primetime player in the SEC.

Three Toss-Ups

     Arkansas (October 6^th), Ole Miss (October 13^th) and Texas A&M (October 27^th) all look like games that could go either way at this point.  The outcome of these three October contest will ultimately determine what type of season the Tigers have.  Three wins, along with victories over Vanderbilt and New Mexico State could mean a five-game winning streak heading into the Georgia game.  Arkansas and Texas A&M are both home games for Auburn and the Tigers will go on the road to face Ole Miss.

     It’s certainly no long shot to say that the Tigers could win all three.  If the defense has the type of inspired performance it had against LSU, the chances are very good.  But, can the offense get on track?  To be safe, we’ll put two of these in the win column due to the number of question marks that remain.

The Two Long Shots

     That just leaves Georgia and Alabama.  The Tigers two biggest rivals are also the two they’re least likely to come out victorious against.  Both teams are undefeated, highly ranked and playing at a level well beyond anything Auburn has shown itself capable of thus far this season.

     A play here or there could have made the difference Saturday night against LSU, but those plays didn’t fall Auburn’s way.  Until that happens, these two games look like almost certain losses.

     So, one third of the way into the season, it looks like this Auburn team is headed for a 6-6 record, with 7-5 being a possibility.  That would mean a lower to mid tier bowl game for the Tigers and lots of off-season question marks about the direction of the program.

     Anything can happen on the long and winding road of the college football season, though.  Auburn almost proved that once again Saturday night.