The peak of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season is upon us, and two recent Category 5 storms (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) crossed well to the south of the Alabama coast. But even though Dean and Felix were never really a threat to us, it’s only natural to ask “what’s next?”

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead author of a hurricane activity forecast released Tuesday morning by Colorado State University researchers, above-average activity is expected for the next three months.

For September and the two-month period of October and November, that translates into a prediction of five named storms during each period.

This month, the forecast calls for four of the five storms to become hurricanes and two to strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 or larger). In October-November, the team forecasts two of the five named storms to become hurricanes and one to become a major hurricane.

“It’s looking pretty active for the rest of the season,” Klotzbach said.

He noted the most recent readings from NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center indicate that conditions in the Pacific are moving toward a weak La Niña, a phenomenon that promotes tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Klotzbach said low pressure readings in the tropical Atlantic last month also foretells an active season.

“We predict that September-November will exhibit characteristics of an active year based on climate signals through August,” stated Dr. William Gray in a press release. Gray has been issuing hurricane forecasts at Colorado State for 24 years.

The favorable conditions include Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures that have remained at near-normal values along with ENSO conditions that trended slightly cooler during August. Atlantic sea level pressure values were at near-record low levels during August.

Klotzbach said the west vertical wind shear at upper levels has declined, enabling tropical waves to develop more easily.

“With a warm body of water and little shear, they really get going,” he said.

The northern Gulf Coast has been fortunate so far this year, but that might not last. Klotzbach said, “We’ve had a fairly strong ridge of high pressure keeping the storms zipping west.”

The high pressure system, which some call a Bermuda High, is also responsible for the higher than normal temperatures and less than abundant rainfall Alabama has been experiencing this summer.

Klotzbach said because Dean and Felix fully formed in the relatively low latitudes of the Caribbean, they likely would have curved further north if the high pressure system hadn’t been in play. He said, “(Tropical) waves are steered by low-level flow, and as they develop, they have a more south to north component. When a subtropical high pressure is fairly strong in the southeast United States, they tend to go east to west without curving north.”

Most would agree that in some respects, the high has been our friend.

According to Klotzbach, when Hurricane Felix slammed into the northern Nicaraguan coast near the Honduran border Tuesday morning with 160-mph winds, it had recently undergone an eyewall replacement. He said when eyewalls get so small they can no longer sustain the activity, a second, larger eyewall forms, which eventually replaces the smaller component.

Colorado State University researchers report there was average tropical activity in June and July, with two named storms forming during the two-month period (Barry and Chantal). No activity occurred in the deep tropics during those months.

August had about average numbers of tropical cyclone formations. The hurricane that did form (Dean) reached Category 5 status and lasted for 3.75 days as a major hurricane. This is the most days that a single major hurricane has accrued during the month of August since Hurricane Frances in 2004.

For a detailed description of the many detailed forecast factors, visit http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu.

The team will issue an updated forecast for October-November Atlantic basin hurricane activity on Oct. 2.