FAIRHOPE, Ala. — Colorado State University hurricane forecasters on June 3 stuck by an earlier prediction that indicated a very active 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The team is calling for 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin this year (through Nov. 30). Eight of the storms are expected to become hurricanes, with four becoming intense hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson Scale Category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed May 31, is included in the forecast, meaning 14 more named storms are expected this season.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast, said Thursday that conditions are currently favorable for tropical storm or hurricane development, but he noted they can change as the season progresses.

“Right now the Atlantic looks like it’s in a mode for an active hurricane season,” he said. “If we get a weak El Niño, we’ll obviously have to reduce our forecast.”

Tropical and north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are warmer than average by about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius, he noted. There’s also been a reduction of vertical winds that might otherwise cool the water and produce a shearing effect to stunt storm development.

Northern wind shear, compliments of a tropical level low, helped prevent hurricanes from building up steam during the 2007 season, which provided Gulf Coast residents with the second quiet season in a row. Klotzbach said, “Last year’s wind shear was surprising, but it wasn’t particularly strong.”

He pointed out there were as many named storms last year, as there were in 2004 when Hurricane Ivan devastated the southwest Alabama and northwest Florida coasts, but most after Felix were short lived and weak.

“Our primary concern (for 2008) is the warming waters in the equatorial Pacific,” Klotzbach said. “At this point, we do not believe that an El Niño will develop by late this summer; however, this is a possibility that must be monitored closely.”

He said CSU researchers are using a new statistical model this year to better predict tropical cyclone activity. This model shows considerable improvement in skill over the models that have been used to issue June predictions over the past few years.

“It was built on 40 years of data, from 1950 to 1990,” Klotzbach said. “I tested it on known data, and it works pretty well.”

The hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, the 2005 season produced activity that was about 275 percent of the average season.

The 2007 season was around 100 percent of the average season with a total of 15 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes forming last year. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

According to the CSU team, there is a 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent). There’s a 45 percent chance that a major storm will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent), and a 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas (the long-term average is 30 percent).

“The Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes during the 13-year period of 1995-2007 (average 3.8 per year) in comparison to the prior 25-year period of 1970-1994 (average 1.5 per year),” stated Dr. William Gray, who began forecasting hurricane seasons at Colorado State 25 years ago. “This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) that is not directly related to global temperature increase. Changes in ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism.”

But, as Klotzbach and Gray will tell you, nature is subject to change, and forecasting is far from being a perfect science.

“We issue the best forecasts we can,” Klotzbach said. “There’s a lot of science that goes into them, and we try to write them in layman’s terms. One of the things we point out is you don’t develop new techniques (such as the new statistical model) if you don’t bomb out occasionally.”

But, he cautioned that any forecast should be taken with a grain of salt because they will never be a guarantee of what will actually happen.

“People sometimes interpret forecasts as more than they’re intended to be,” Klotzbach said. “Coastal residents need to prepare for every hurricane season, regardless of seasonal predictions. There is inherent uncertainty in seasonal predictions. Also, seasonal forecasts cannot say anything about when or where storms are going to make landfall. Have a plan in place, and know what you’re going to do if you’re going to be impacted.”

The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1. These forecasts will contain predictions for the individual months of August, September and October.