MOBILE, Ala. — Ask a roomful of economists whether the global recession is beginning to ease, and you’ll likely get a dozen or more answers. There are many schools of thought on that issue.

Dennis Lockhart, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said the 20-month downturn in the economy will not fix itself overnight. Although markets are showing signs of recovery, Lockhart said the numbers suggest it will be no sooner than mid-2010 when national output reaches 2007 levels.

“It’s not a uniform picture,” he said in a speech delivered Sept. 30 during the 2009 Coastal Economy Outlook, held at the Mobile Convention Center. “Optimism is warranted, but should be tempered by awareness that this is an economy substantially buttressed by a large number of temporary government support programs.”

The financial shots-in-the-arm given the financial industry must eventually be withdrawn, Lockhart added, but only when the time is right. He said, “It’s premature to begin that process. My concern is about some form of relapse being felt in both the credit markets and banking sector.”

Lockhart stressed that a turnaround in the housing market is needed before the economy will show any significant measure of growth. He said sales volume, prices and new home starts are up, but new and existing home inventories remain high, possibly indicating a weak residential construction outlook.

He went on to point out that net residential expansion is especially vital in areas of the Southeast such as south Florida and metro Atlanta. Even in Baldwin County, which is largely rural and heavily reliant on tourism, a relatively sluggish real estate market is having a negative impact.

Housing sales are currently supported by two federally sponsored programs, Lockhart noted.

One, the first-time homebuyer subsidy, comes in the form of a tax credit, and without further action will expire at the end of November.

The other, the Fed’s mortgage-backed securities purchases, now totals $1.25 trillion. That program, along with the government purchase of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac agency notes will end during the first quarter of 2010, giving way to private investment.

Stock value and spending also declined when the economy took a hit, and anxiety over the possibility of more bad news seems to be keeping folks out of their favorite stores, but is helping them fill their piggy banks.

“Household net worth took a big hit in the recession, and as a consequence personal consumption dropped strongly,” Lockhart said. “Of course, there is more to the story of consumption pullback. Starting in 2007, households began to deleverage, and in recent months the personal savings rate is up substantially.

“Rising unemployment and fear of job loss, tighter consumer credit and the savings/deleveraging phenomenon combined to push consumption down, especially in the durables category. Consumer durables buying has recently improved, but this improvement is associated mostly with the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ incentive in support of auto purchases.”

Lockhart said American households lost a collective $14 trillion, primarily through stock market losses and a drop in the value of their homes. The amount reflects around 20 percent of their net worth.

They are slowly regaining ground, however. About $2 trillion was added back in the second quarter of 2009, mostly because of market appreciation. Gains in stocks and home prices fueled additional growth in the third quarter, which ended Wednesday.

Lockhart warned that commercial real estate troubles could delay recovery. Many retail, office, hotel, warehouse and multifamily residential properties are devalued because of the recession, and vacancies and defaulted loans have complicated matters for lenders.

Businesses have been tightening their belts, by delaying purchases of equipment and software, Lockhart said. Many have begun spending more for capital goods and inventory, while at the same time learning to do more with less. Because of that, many economists believe this will be a jobless recovery.

Lockhart said, “The administration’s stimulus program has helped soften the pace of job loss. But a recent inquiry of Southeast state budget officials, conducted by the Atlanta Fed, suggested much of the benefit, in infrastructure construction at least, has been front-ended in 2009 and early 2010.”

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 216,000 in August, but analysts predict the September figures will come in at only 180,000. During the first six months of this year, the average monthly job loss was 600,000.

“If you look at history, recoveries following a deep recession have more often than not been quite strong,” Lockhart said. “The broad consensus among forecasters is this recovery will be weak in comparison. But even with that consensus, there is diverse opinion about the speed and path by which the economy will reach its full potential for growth.

“We all ardently want to believe the nation is on the economic comeback trail. I don’t think we are served by declaring prematurely that we’re in the clear, nor by overweighting the lagging data and the risks. In thinking about the recovery, I recommend for now a mindset of measured optimism.”