FAIRHOPE, Ala. — Here’s further proof Mother Nature pays little attention to the familiar Gregorian calendar used in civilized society since the late 1500s. Although Monday, June 1, is the first official day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, a tropical disturbance already has materialized off the U.S. East Coast.

Tropical Depresssion No. 1 nearly became the first named storm this year before it failed to strengthen on Friday. At press time, it was expected to dissipate almost as quickly as it had formed.

Making its first forecast of the season (which runs through Nov. 30), the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center called for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent shot at a below-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

Jeff Garmon, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mobile, said we should always be ready for a hurricane, no matter what the forecasts indicate.

“The seasonal predictions are nice, but that’s all they are,” he said. “There are a lot of factors we don’t understand.”

Among those are some of the nuts and bolts that determine why storms abruptly change intensity, making an accurate projection of strength at landfall very difficult. Some NOAA meterologists say their knowledge could be advanced by powerful computers yet to be developed that would enable them to run stronger modeling software.

“NOAA strives to produce the best possible forecasts to help emergency officials and residents better prepare for an approaching storm,” Dr. Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said during a recent press conference. “I’m pleased to have the (Obama) administration’s support for an additional $13 million in next year’s budget request to continue the trend of improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts.”

More than 35 million Americans now live in regions most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes, according to U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke. He concurred with Lubchenco, saying, “Timely and accurate warnings of severe weather help save lives and property. Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane.”

Garmon said NWS Mobile is prepared to disseminate the information coastal residents need when a tropical storm or hurricane threatens.

“We want to make sure they can make an informed decision. We’re going to do what we’ve always done, and we’re adding services this year,” he said. “We know (forecasting) is not restricted to one generation looking at the Internet, one looking at TV and one listening to the radio. There are mixed ages that get it from various sources, including a newspaper.”

That’s why the local NWS office is working with all its media partners, as well as the Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency, so that everyone is working on the same page. Garmon said having a current and coordinated message is important in times of emergency.

There is some uncertainty what the upcoming hurricane season will bring. Competing climate factors are making the projections a little less clear.

Supporting the possibility of more activity this season are conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995 (the multi-decadal signal), which include enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear. Activity could be reduced, however, if El Niño develops in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer, or if ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic remain cooler than normal.

Garmon said the 2002 season was contradictory because it was a slow year in the terms of tropical activity, but it nonetheless produced the catastrophic Hurricane Andrew, which devastated south Florida before crossing the Gulf of Mexico and making another landfall along the Louisiana coast. He noted it could have come ashore at or near southwest Alabama had a weather trough steered it this way.

“You can’t say we’re off the hook,” Garmon said. “That’s not what these forecasts are for.”

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not project where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

“You need to take a look at supplies such as plywood — are the clips in good shape? These are the little surprises you don’t need when a storm approaches,” Garmon said.

He admitted he was once caught in a pinch, and had to cut plywood for his windows in the wee hours of the morning, something that could have been avoided because he knew the drill.

“Ivan was a good lesson for us,” Garmon said. “I was one of the ones waiting in line at the store. It was stressful. Katrina was easier because I was prepared.”

He suggested we all take the time now to make a hurricane plan so we will be ready to carry it out when needed. Garmon also stressed the importance of having on hand plenty of water, non-perishable food and other emergency supplies.

“One of these big storms is coming,” he said. “Should I leave or not? Develop criteria and have a plan in place.”

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

In the meantime, visit one of these Web sites to learn how to be ready when a hurricane strikes the coast: www.redcross.org, www.hurricanes.gov/prepare, www.ready.gov and www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm.