FAIRHOPE, Ala. — Conditions ripe for hurricane development could be in place this year, according to Colorado State University forecasters. The CSU team released its seasonal predictions on April 7, calling for an above-average 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on the CSU Hurricane Forecast Team, said that as many as 15 named storms are expected to form in the Atlantic basin during the season this year. Eight are predicted to be hurricanes, with four developing into major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Categories 3, 4 or 5) with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The long-term seasonal averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes. The hurricane season falls between June 1 and Nov. 30.

“El Niño has already started to dissipate,” Klotzbach said shortly after the forecast was released. “We have seen the waters in the tropical Pacific cooling the last couple of months. This is the time of year we typically start seeing it weaken.”

When the El Niño phenomenon forms in the Pacific basin, it creates a high-level westerly wind shear that hampers the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, he noted. Klotzbach expects El Niño will become weak or neutral and no longer be a factor by the peak of the hurricane season.

He said, “Upper level winds last year cut apart the storms in the Caribbean and especially the Gulf.” Not only will there be less chance for wind shear, high sea surface temperatures could also affect development.

“The water temps in the Atlantic are about as warm as we’ve ever seen them,” Klotzbach said. “That doesn’t mean it will be that warm during hurricane season.”

But the temperatures are currently nearly two degrees warmer than normal, at 79 degrees Fahrenheit, and summer is still weeks away.

The latest forecast is based on 58 years of historical data. Dr. William Gray, who began forecasting tropical weather at CSU 27 years ago, said in a statement that coastal communities need to heed the research.

“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” Gray said. “While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season.”

According to the forecast team, precursor factors to this year have a number of similarities to early April conditions that preceded the hurricane years of 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005. All five of those seasons had above-average activity, especially the seasons of 1969, 1998 and 2005. But, Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2010 season will have slightly less activity than the average of those five earlier years.

By the numbers, CSU forecasters suggest cyclone activity in 2010 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2009 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 70 percent of the average season.

They also predict there is a 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent), and a 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas (the long-term average is 30 percent).

Klotzbach said, “We really can’t say exactly where the storms are going to go. That’s certainly what people want to know, but we can’t give that answer this far in advance.”

The hurricane team’s forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions — such as El Niño, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures — that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

The team began using a new early April statistical model two years ago.

“We have found that using two late-winter predictors and our early December hindcast, we can obtain early April predictions that show considerable hindcast skill over the period from 1950-2007,” Klotzbach said. “This new forecast model also provided a very accurate prediction over the past few seasons.”

The team will issue forecast updates on June 2 and Aug. 4.