FAIRHOPE, Ala. — It doesn’t seem to matter who you ask. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is still shaping up to be rather active.

The Colorado State University tropical weather team announced Wednesday that they are sticking with their earlier prediction of 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin this year, with 10 storms becoming hurricanes and five of those growing into major weather events with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

The following day, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (a division of the National Weather Service) revealed forecasters there are expecting 14 to 20 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including eight to 12 hurricanes with four to six major hurricanes. Those totals represent a slight dip from NOAA’s earlier forecast, which was released in May.

Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, noted during a press conference Thursday morning there is a 90 percent chance of an above-normal season. He said, “This is the 11th time in the last 16 years that we’ve had at least two named storms in July. This year could be one of the most active on record.”

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the CSU forecast, said shortly after the NOAA forecast was released that La Niña conditions had formed as earlier predicted, but more rapidly than originally thought. The Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon, when combined with warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures off the East Coast and in the Caribbean, can be a recipe for disaster.

“We have witnessed the development of La Niña conditions over the past couple of months, and we believe that a moderate La Niña will be present over the next several months, which is associated with decreased levels of vertical wind shear and increased hurricane activity, said Dr. William Gray, in his 27th year of forecasting hurricanes at Colorado State.

Klotzbach added, “We’ve also noted the persistence of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in both the tropical and North Atlantic and low sea level pressures that have occurred across the tropical Atlantic in June and July. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic season.”

Although Mother Nature does not necessarily follow the Gregorian calendar, the season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Klotzbach compared the relatively slow start this year to the 1998 hurricane season, which began July 27 with the formation of Tropical Storm Alex, and ended Dec. 1 with the dissipation of Hurricane Nicole, the 14th named storm that season.

Hurricane Alex, the first named storm of the 2010 season, hit northeast Mexico on June 30. Klotzbach said, “In two to three weeks, the season should pick up.”

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane-prone areas to be prepared,” said Dr. Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. The agency recommends having survival kits on hand and evacuation plans in place.

Gray said, “The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 75 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent.” Although it is impossible to predict exactly where a hurricane might strike more than five or six days out, knowing the conditions in place gives meteorologists a better understanding of how a certain region may be impacted.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project recently updated its U.S. landfall probabilities based on 20th century landfall history, adjusted using its newest seasonal forecast.

CSU researchers said there is a 50 percent chance a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent). There is a 49 percent chance a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas.

Bell cautioned that CSU and NOAA forecasts are just a “general guide, not an actual landfall prediction. The Atlantic and Gulf coasts are more likely to be struck during an active season, however.”

The NOAA scientist also pointed out that the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, has led to more active seasons. An average season, according to the federal agency, is the formation of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Bell reminded reporters the current string of active years, which began in 1995, could last from 25-40 years. He said there was also an active period from the 1930s to 1970, then a less-active cycle from 1971-1994.

“All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months,” said Bell. “As we’ve seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record.”

For more information on how to be prepared for hurricane season, visit www.ready.gov or www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.