The housing market continues to decline, the outlook for a turnaround anytime soon remains bleak, and the only homeowners who might claim to be comfortable in the current economic climate are likely related to the brothers Grimm.

The National Association of Realtors, through their proverbial rose-colored glasses, says that “modest near-term movement is expected in existing-home sales, with a recovery in sales seen during the second half of the year.” Let’s hope that forecast proves correct even though the statement is likely more of a morale boost for the 1.2 million NAR members, especially the 76 percent that specialize in residential real estate and saw their median earnings fall to $42,600 in 2007, down from $47,700 in 2006.

While these individual earnings numbers represent the NAR member national averages, they also serve as a good indicator of the number of residential transactions that actually close, and the declining selling price of houses across the U.S.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means. Yun went on to say that, “location has never mattered more than in the current market. Some markets have seen a doubling in home sales from a year ago, while others are seeing contract signings cut in half. Price conditions vary tremendously, even within a locality, depending upon a neighborhood’s exposure to subprime loans.”

So, readers contemplating listing their home for sale or entering the market as a prospective buyer will want to do some preparatory research, being certain to include the actual local data referred to by the NAR economist.

Yun also stated “The speed at which home prices has declined in a few select markets is unprecedented, but the large price declines in those areas have enticed bargain hunters back into the market.”

That may be so, but Yun does not cite specific locales, so we would believe that with much caution.

He also said “There have been reports of multiple bidding after the large price cuts, so it is possible that most of the price declines have already occurred in those markets.” Again, that may be so in isolated instances, but caution is called for here, too. After all, speculators and other house-buying vultures (you’ve no doubt seen signs on poles in your area) are out there offering to buy your home quickly.

There are 120 million homes in the U.S. About one-third of them (40 million) are owned free and clear of any mortgages. In other words, carrying and operating costs for those homeowners includes real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance and utilities, but no mortgage payments. The other two-thirds (about 80 million homes) have the additional costs of mortgage and possibly mortgage insurance, payments. That assumes only a first mortgage.

Interestingly, approximately half of the 80 million homes with outstanding mortgages were purchased before or during the year 2000. CNBC analyst Dennis Kneale reports that “median prices have increased by 53 percent since 2000.” Kneale adds that “with market sales prices down 12 percent during the last year, owners who purchased homes prior to, or during the year 2000 are still up…” and “if you haven’t sold, you haven’t lost anything.”

In those specific instances, Kneale is right. Yet the 4 to 5 million homeowners already at risk of losing their homes will likely be joined by many others in the months ahead as soaring energy costs and real estate taxes exert downward pressure on them as they struggle to keep their head above water.

Richard Olivastro is a member of the National Speakers Association, president of People Dynamics and founder of Citizens For Change. He can be reached at Rich@Olivastro.net or 877-RichSpeaks.