FAIRHOPE, Ala. — Tropical Storm Alberto didn’t wait on the official June 1 beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to form off the east coast of the United States, but forecasters were predicting at press time the minimal storm would remain offshore near the Georgia and South Carolina coast.

Alberto’s maximum sustained winds Monday morning were near 40 mph, and little change in strength was expected.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami was also monitoring a tropical depression in the Pacific Ocean, south of the Mexican coast.

Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University predicted last month a below-average 2012 Atlantic season because of a cooling of the tropical Atlantic and the potential development of El Nino conditions.

The CSU team expects 10 named storms during the hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. Four of those are expected to become hurricanes, with two of those major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson Scale category 3, 4, 5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

“We have witnessed cooling of the tropical Atlantic during this past winter, and there is a fairly high likelihood that an El Nino event will develop this summer,” said Klotzbach. “Typically, El Nino is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation. Still, all vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is. It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.”

The forecasters at CSU are using a new formula that looks at 29 years of historical data. Under the new method, global oceanic and atmospheric conditions such as El Nino, Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc. that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year.

These numbers suggest tropical cyclone activity in 2012 will be about 75 percent of the average season. Tropical cyclone activity last year was 145 percent of the average season.

The CSU team forecasts a 42 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline, a 24 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula and a 24 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas.

On a related note, the National Weather Service announced Friday that Richard Knabb, The Weather Channel’s tropical weather expert, would replace Bill Read as director of the National Hurricane Center. Read is stepping down on June 1 from the post he has held since 2008.

Knabb was a senior hurricane specialist at NHC from 2005 to 2008. He was deputy director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu before being hired by The Weather Channel two years ago.