For over a year national polls have forecast that the nominee of the Democrat party will defeat the Republican nominee in the 2008 presidential election.

Along the way, media reportage and talking heads as well as the vast majority of political pundits have assumed that former first lady and second term junior U.S. Senator from New York, Hilary Rodham Clinton, would be the Democrat nominee.

The big question was who would the Republicans select as their standard bearer and sacrificial lamb?

As discussed in a previous column, Mrs. Clinton is now locked in a fight for her political life with Barack Hussein Obama, the first term junior U.S. Senator from Illinois.

Obama has won the last 11 primaries and caucuses and has the momentum going into the Ohio and Texas primaries next week. As I write this, polls in the two states are reported to be “very close.” And, more dark clouds may be ahead. Former President Bill Clinton said last week that his “wife had to win in Texas and Ohio.”

Last Thursday at their Austin debate, Mrs. Clinton said, “I am honored to be here with Barack Obama. I am deeply honored.” And you know, whatever happens, we’re going to be fine.”

Unless Clinton can bounce back, tremendous pressure will build for her to bow out now, long before the late August convention in Denver, give Obama his due, and prepare for what the future may bring.

The future being the long-shot possibility of the vice presidential spot on this year’s ticket, or another chance in 2012 if Obama is not in the White House.

Meanwhile, veteran U.S. Sen. John Sidney McCain III of Arizona will be the Republican nominee despite the record-based misgivings of many conservatives around the country.

Since McCain achieved ‘nominee-in-waiting’ status six months before the early September convention in Minneapolis, he has begun the reach out to conservative activists and to the nation’s Republican governors. Last week, McCain told the governors he “believes in states’ rights.”

That’s important.

Important too is what Clinton and Obama have been doing in pursuit of the Democrat nomination. Unspoken and unsaid is their own – and their spouses – use of gender and race in seeking votes. Spoken and said are attempts by each campaign to grab so-called superdelegates as well as trying to steal-away the other’s ‘previously won’ delegates before the convention.

Interestingly, Democrat party rules do not require ‘won’ delegates to actually vote for that candidate. As a result, the Democrat nominee may go into the general election campaign severely wounded.

If Clinton can come back to corral the nomination, many Americans, their hopes dashed by the party’s rejection of Obama, are likely to not vote in November, or may vote for her opponent.

If Obama gets the nomination, as seems increasingly likely, Clinton supporters are likely to sit on their hands knowing that only if Obama loses the general election can Clinton get a second chance in 2012.

Each scenario loses votes for one of the Democrat contenders, and some of those voters may cast ballots for the Republican nominee. Don’t doubt that this dynamic will happen. It will. Only after the general election vote tally and analysis will we know its actual significance to the outcome.

That is why what Clinton and Obama have said and done is important. And, that is why what John McCain is saying and doing is more important. McCain’s remarks to the governors about states’ rights were for all Americans to hear. There is more to come.

Here is the big ‘if’ in the coming campaign:

If John McCain convinces conservatives that he believes in the constitutional demarcation of government responsibilities between the states and the federal level, he will increase his chances in November to the degree that he may win the opportunity to prove that his statement of belief is true.

McCain’s road to victory is certainly not assured regardless of what he says.

The campaign effort required of him will be arduous regardless of which Democrat he faces.

Discipline is essential and his “straight talk” mantra needs to consistently be clear and concise to rise above sloganeering and attain the resonance needed to break through the media’s political noise and have a chance for acceptance by America’s citizens.

Many critics, pundits and politicians think “Maverick” McCain does not have the discipline and resolve to campaign this way over the next 251 days. But if McCain sees the campaign as a mission, he may surprise the naysayers and others.

For the record, then Lt. Cmdr. John McCain had the strength to persevere for 1,968 days in a North Vietnamese prison. Don’t count him out!