MIAMI - A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles northwest of Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. However, satellite images indicate that the shower activity remains disorganized, and the low continues to lack a well-defined center.

Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Environmental conditions have the potential to become more conducive for development over the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rains are likely to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days, which could lead to possible flash floods and mudslides.

Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for further details. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later this morning.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties regarding this system's development and future track, it is too early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.

Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 50 percent and formation chance through five days is high 80 percent.