FAIRHOPE, Ala. — The National Hurricane Center in Miami will issue watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas earlier than before. According to NHC experts, advancements in track forecasts are making it possible for forecasters to provide greater lead time.

“There’s been an improvement in the forecasting capability,” said James Franklin, NHC Hurricane Specialists Unit branch chief. “It means they’ll get an additional 12 hours of watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes.”

Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. This is an increase of 12 hours from those issued in previous years.

Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings. The hurricane watches and warnings will generally be timed to provide 48 and 36 hours notice, respectively, before the onset of tropical storm force winds.

The changes will go into effect on June 1, the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The additional time will give people preparing for the storm — securing oil rig platforms, getting food and water stockpiled, boarding windows, etc. — enough time to finish preparations and seek safe shelter.

“There’s been an explosion in technology,” Franklin said. “We now obtain many more measurements in the environment of hurricanes from satellites, and there have been increases in computer productivity. As computers get faster and faster, we can replicate more detail in the atmosphere.”

That replication comes in the form of computer modeling. NHC compiles the output of several models and bases forecast tracks on known science and past model accuracy. Franklin said, “The developers are working to increase (the accuracy) of those models.”

But no matter the warning time, preparation is the key to a successful evacuation because some places are more vulnerable than others.

“There are areas that require more time to evacuate,” he said. “The Florida Keys and New Orleans have exceedingly long evacuation times. Some must be evacuated even before we issue warnings.”

In Baldwin County, locales such as the Fort Morgan Peninsula, Gulf Shores and Orange Beach require additional time to clear. Franklin said the extra 12 hours potentially gives residents two more periods of daylight in which to make preparations.

The number of full- and part-time residents here is on the rise, with up to 100,000 added during peak tourist seasons. Bill Read, NHC director, said, “With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make lifesaving decisions regarding evacuations.”

Leigh Ann Ryals, director of the Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency, agrees. She said, “The more lead time I have, the better able I am to manage the event. It will also allow us to act and request funds from the state sooner.”

Although pleased with additional time to turn plans into action, Ryals noted it comes with a downside.

“When we look at an incident and we don’t get hit by a storm, but we evacuate, will FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) fund the preventative measures? If we’re not hit, a lot of the financial burden falls on local government to pick up,” she said. “If the whole northern Gulf Coast is put under a warning and it goes to Texas and we’re not included in the (emergency) declaration process, we’ve lost a lot of money.”

The level of future funding Baldwin County receives for infrastructure, such as the roads we use to evacuate, will be determined by the 2010 U.S. Census. Ryals said, “A lot of our traffic flow studies are built around our resident population, while the tourism population isn’t taken into consideration. A lot of grants are based on your current population.

“We must look at the current infrastructure and move the population in a timely manner. Before these (watch and warning) changes, we would be behind the curve in beginning an evacuation.”