FAIRHOPE, Ala. — Hurricanes should be so old school by now to those living along the Gulf Coast, but meteorologists and Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) officials worry residents might not heed warnings and instead place themselves in danger.

NOAA forecasters said late last week that we will likely see a fairly typical Atlantic hurricane season this year. Projections from NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicated there is a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season.

NOAA meterologists say emerging global weather patterns are placing a greater uncertainty on the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. The period of most hurricane activity stretches from June through November each year.

Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecaster said May 21 there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

Competing climate factors will come into play this year, Bell said. Supporting the possibility of more activity are conditions associated with an ongoing high-activity era, which includes enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.

“We’ve had the multi-decadal signal since 1995 — a pattern of tropical rainfall and Atlantic temperature patterns that could last 40 years,” he said. With a neutral or weak El Niño, “there’s no indication it’s coming to an end.” he added.

The possibility of an El Niño forming this year is indicated by some computer forecast models, he said. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead Colorado State University forecaster, also said recently such a system could be a positive factor during the upcoming season.

El Niño is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe, according to NOAA. Among the effects are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the U.S. and in Peru, along with drought conditions in the western Pacific.

The climate phenomenon also serves as a barrier here, reducing the number of hurricanes that form and grow, by holding down sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin and creating stronger wind shears that tend to impede hurricanes from strengthening.

Bell cautioned that the forecast is a general guide of expected activity, and is in no way an indication of where hurricanes might make landfall. He said, “Where or when a hurricane strikes depends on the conditions at the time. A hurricane can strike anywhere.” Another seasonal projection will be issued in August.

Asked about possible worldwide climate change and its impact on the tropical Atlantic, Dr. Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said, “The seasonal outlook represents our best knowledge of the climate signals … The scientific evidence does indeed suggest global warming increases the number of hurricanes, but it’s unclear if it affects intensity.” She noted researchers are attempting to answer such lingering questions.

Bell said NOAA suffers a lack of “horsepower in computers” to advance hurricane forecasting to the next level, but it’s not due to a lack of funding.

Lubchenco said, “The president’s budget for 2010 has some very good requests to help us predict intensity and not just track.” Around $13 million has been requested.

National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read added, “There are only a handful of research machines we can use.” He said machines with greater capability are needed in order to expand NOAA capability.

Tropical systems acquire a name (the first for 2009 will be Ana) upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and are considered major hurricanes when winds increase to 111 mph. An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes with two becoming major hurricanes.

This is Hurricane Preparedness Week, and Craig Fugate, FEMA administrator, said the federal government has already spent “hundreds of millions of dollars to give you the best possible forecast, but that doesn’t mean a hurricane won’t strike your community. Hurricanes will make landfall in the U.S. Hurricanes will destroy homes.”

Fugate said it is up to each of us to be responsible and do our part by developing a hurricane plan now, implementing it when needed and checking on neighbors.

“There’s a lot of folks who need help. They don’t have a car,” he said. “What are you doing to be ready to make sure we don’t take resources away from our most vulnerable citizens?”

Fugate added, “We’re only going to be as well prepared as the public is — the effort put in this process. People need to understand they have a very critical role.”

Read pointed out that around 1,000 people perished during the 2008 Hurricane Season, with 80 percent of those falling victim to flash flooding.

To browse topics related to hurricane preparation, visit www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.