NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologists released another Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast on Thursday, Aug. 9, sticking by their May prediction of an above-normal season.

Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Camp Springs, Md.-based center, said during a press conference that the multi-decadal increase in tropical activity that began in 1995 will continue to affect the number of storms that form in the Atlantic basin. Also in play are warmer than average surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and developing La Niña conditions.

“The majority (of storms) are expected to form over the tropical Atlantic August through October,” Bell said. “It should be a sharp increase over last season.”

During these peak months, NOAA scientists project an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, with the likelihood of 13 to 16 named storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes (Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

The development of key climate factors so far has increased NOAA’s confidence of an above-normal season, and has also led the federal agency to tighten the ranges that had been given in its May outlook. At that time, the NOAA team predicted a range of 13-17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, and three to five becoming major hurricanes.

Bell said it is impossible to forecast with any certainty how many storms will actually form during a certain season, and where they will make landfall.

But during above-normal seasons, many of the storms form over the tropical Atlantic. These systems generally track westward, towards the United States and the Caribbean Sea, thereby posing an increased threat to these regions.

Scientists are more certain that Gulf Coast residents will have to endure the multi-decadal phenomenon for up to 28 more years. Ten of the last 12 years brought very active seasons.

The warmer waters, lower pressure, less vertical wind shear in the upper atmosphere and favorable weather patterns off the coast of Africa indicate we might not get off the hook as we did in 2006, Bell said.

“Last year, we failed to forecast the rapidly developing El Niño,” he pointed out. “This year, there is no chance of El Niño.” The conditions created by El Niño inhibit Atlantic hurricane formation and development.

Bell noted most of the 2007 season’s atmospheric and oceanic conditions have already developed as expected, and are consistent with those predicted in May.

“The biggest wild card in the May outlook was whether or not La Niña would form, and if so, how strong it would be,” he added.

The CPC forecast suggests a slightly more than 50 percent probability that La Niña will form during the peak of the hurricane season. The team is already observing wind patterns similar to those created by La Niña across the tropical Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea that encourage tropical cyclone development.

“La Niña affects tropical winds and temperatures over the Pacific, and it affects wind patterns on over to the Atlantic,” Bell said. “There’s now a deep, southerly flow over the tropics and less dry air.”

So far this season, there have been three named Atlantic storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal), which is slightly above average. Bell said, “Normally, there is little activity during June and July. It is not reflective of what is going to happen the rest of the season.”

On average, one to two storms develop in June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Bell warned against the danger of dropping our guard.

“Complacency is not good,” he said. “People are better off if they prepare. It’s not a matter of preparing for an active hurricane season. It’s about preparing for an active hurricane era.”