Hurricane Dean turned into a monster. The Category Five storm (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) hit the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday morning with sustained winds reaching 165 mph. That’s the bad news.
The good news is the high pressure system …
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Hurricane Dean turned into a monster. The Category Five storm (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) hit the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday morning with sustained winds reaching 165 mph. That’s the bad news.
The good news is the high pressure system that has been calling our stretch of the Gulf Coast home for a few weeks, bringing with it nearly unbearable heat, is a major reason Dean didn’t come calling here.
Gary Beeler, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mobile, said it appears to be an extension of a Bermuda High. Such a system formed in 2006 and helped steer most of the season’s named storms away from the United States.
“Last year we had a persistent low on the East Coast,” Beeler said. “Hurricanes form to the south, so it doesn’t take much to steer it to the north. They even have a tendency to steer to the north.”
He noted high pressure systems typically block low pressure systems like tropical storms and hurricanes, however, forcing them to find another path of movement.
Beeler said a lingering high is “just something that happens sometimes. It happened in 2000. In 1980, we had a persistent high pressure system. Fronts are blocked from coming down here. It’s just been strange this year.”
Beeler said, “It looks like (our heat) is going to continue the next few days.” He noted a few clouds and pop-up storms are possible, with highs expected in the upper 90s today (Aug. 22).
Air is trapped under high pressure and warms up, according to Beeler. When winds have a northerly flow, they typically pump in dry air, creating drought conditions like those seen in the upper two-thirds of the state. Southerly winds coming off the Gulf are not as dry, and enable moisture to build.
“It gets drier inland during the summer,” Beeler said. “If we get northerly surface winds, it’s hard for that sea breeze to drift inland.”
Just last week, 59 Alabama counties were placed under a no-burn order by the Alabama Forestry Commission after it declared that emergency drought conditions existed in those counties. Another eight counties in the southwest part of the state, including Baldwin, were simply placed under a fire alert.
“It’s feast or famine. This is one of the worst droughts in years,” Beeler said. “Some places have gotten rain. We’ve gotten some. Mobile and Baldwin are right on the edge. If you go inland or east, they get drier.”
Texas has been dealing with low pressure in the meantime, producing torrential rains and flooding. Tropical Storm Erin made the situation even worse when it made landfall there last week.
If the persistent high moves before the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season ends sometime in October, the coast will again be vulnerable to the most powerful forces of Mother Nature.
Storm development was hindered last year by an unexpected El Niño phenomenon, which formed over the Pacific Ocean. But forecasters say that will not happen this year.
Could its opposite, La Niña, take its place, as some meteorologists have suggested will happen?
“Yes and no,” Beeler said. “There are signs (La Niña) is developing, but it hasn’t yet. Usually you don’t go from El Niño to La Niña the next year. Climatologists are looking at the signals.”
El Niño inhibits the formation of tropical systems while La Niña seems to encourage their development. Although another El Niño would certainly be welcome along the Gulf Coast right now, not everyone would share in our joy.
Beeler said, “It plays havoc with the West Coast in the winter.”
To learn more about La Niña , visit http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html.