FAIRHOPE, Ala. — It should come as no surprise three named tropical systems formed in the Atlantic basin this month. After all, that’s exactly the number Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University predicted Oct. 1, saying conditions were ripe for development.

Questioned Thursday about the accuracy of their additional prediction that one of those storms would become a major hurricane, Klotzbach told a Gulf Coast Newspapers reporter that Hurricane Omar had reached Category 3 or possibly 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale while most of us slept the previous night, then began weakening as it continued a northeasterly track over open water.

A crew of meteorologists who flew into Omar overnight Wednesday measured the storm’s winds at around 132 knots at flight level, which translated into about 115 knots at the surface, he said. It maintained that strength for nearly 12 hours.

Neither Marco, Nana or Omar threatened the northern Gulf Coast.

“We thought the first couple of weeks in October would be fairly active and they were,” Klotzbach said. “We think it was largely due to an atmospheric pattern in the Atlantic that was stable for the genesis of storms. It’s going to start getting quiet now.”

The Atlantic Hurricane Season began June 1, and will officially end Nov. 30, but nature doesn’t always heed the calendar. The 2005 season produced so many tropical storms and hurricanes that National Hurricane Center officials had to dip into the Greek alphabet in order to designate storms when the initial list of names was exhausted.

Although the 2008 season hasn’t exhibited as much activity as the year that produced Hurricane Katrina, nearly twice the activity of the average October was predicted by the CSU team.

Warmer water temperature (about 1 degree Fahrenheit more than average), a weak trade wind with a reduced vertical shear over the Atlantic and neutral ENSO atmospheric activity over the Pacific Ocean enabled the Atlantic activity to increase this month, Klotzbach said.

He added, “Here on out, the odds of storms forming and intensifying are much less. There is certainly the possibility of one or two more storms this year.”

Through the end of September, this season brought 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. There were 74.5 named storm days to that point, which is nearly twice the number expected through the end of last month.

Three named storms formed during a very active July (Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly). Bertha became the longest-lived July storm on record, while Hurricane Dolly made landfall in south Texas as a Category 2 hurricane.

August had slightly above-average activity due largely to Hurricane Gustav, which became a major hurricane in the northwest Caribbean late in August and made landfall in central Louisiana on Sept. 1.

September also had slightly above-average activity. Several storms formed during the early portion of the month, with Hurricane Ike being the most notable.

“The central Gulf Coast did well this year,” Klotzbach said. “Louisiana and Texas got pummeled, however.”

He noted Ike, a Category 2 storm that battered the Caribbean before it devastated Galveston, Texas last month, could be recognized at the third most destructive hurricane of all time.

At least 196 people died as a result of the storm, and 202 are still missing. The wind and waves caused $12-14 billion in insured damage, with total damage reaching $30 billion.

Hanna and Kyle also reached hurricane strength in September.

According to the CSU forecast team, net tropical cyclone activity through September is about 155 percent of the long-period average for that time period.

The CSU team is expected to issue a verification of all 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Nov. 24.