These are spooky times.  The bottom has fallen out on the financial markets and real estate values. A lot of people are talking like the sky is falling. 

But, in reality, all life is cyclical and the markets are no exception. The key is to keep one’s head by remembering that the markets are supposed to rise and fall—even very dramatically from time to time—and there are opportunities during it all.

Consider what happens to Mobile Bay during storms. Due to the phases of the moon and the Earth’s 23-degree axial tilt, the tides regularly and seasonally swing from high to low. These swings have taken place with such regularity for so long that we now predict the water levels with great accuracy, down to the tenth of an inch.       

But, occasionally, unpredicted forces combine with the normal tidal patterns to create a very dramatic effect that appears at first aberrant.  This happens when the tidal waters are driven by seasonal storms that push the waters faster and farther than they would on their own.  When the storms drive the tides, the water can—and often does—go much higher or lower than predicted. It can be downright scary.

For example, during winter, a strong north wind from a major high pressure system/cold front can combine with a rapidly falling tide to literally blow half the water out of the bay in a matter of hours. When this happens, the water drops much lower than predicted and the Mobile Bay looks half empty; you can literally ride a bike under wharves where there are normally 5 or 6 feet of water. There is no way to launch boats or access parts of the bay by water, and the fishing stinks.  It can be very inconvenient and frustrating.

But there are also opportunities. You can fix jetties normally covered with water, remove trash and debris from the bottom, and take long walks on seemingly endless beaches. This is my favorite time to walk the beaches with my children. We spend hours walking and talking together, and fill buckets with ‘treasure’ of pottery shards, glass, and even the errant crab trap. It’s blissful.

Similarly, during the summer, a strong south wind during a tropical storm drives the water much higher than predicted and the bay looks like it will rise right into the streets (and sometimes does). During these storms, we batten down the hatches and pray. While not exactly blissful, these tidal surges do have their moments; they are usually preceded by a big jubilee (flounder especially); they deposit tons of needed sand on our beaches; and, most importantly, they give us an opportunity to join together as neighbors to help one another and just plain visit. I see friends and neighbors I haven’t seen in years during these storms. And they always come—whether it’s a devastating storm like Hurricane Danny (1997), Georges (1998), Ivan (2004), or Katrina (2005), or just one of the innumerable smaller ones in between. 

But even with all the drama of a major storm-driven tide, whether coming in or going out, you hardly have to wait a day, even after a real whopper, before the fish are jumping, the birds are diving, and the tides are right back on track.

The same is true of our markets. Even though the tide has gone out on the markets, and is being driven by unexpected geo-political storms which are sending values much lower than predicted, remember, it always comes back. And before you know it, another ‘storm’ will drive values way above predictions and the banks will be overflowing again.

In the meantime, opportunities abound. If we commit to look for them while the tide is out, we may find unexpected treasures in the sand.     

Care for a walk, anyone?

Andrew T. Citrin works at Citrin Law Firm in Daphne. P.C. E-mail him at Andy@citrinlaw.com.