FAIRHOPE, Ala. — When Tropical Storm Ida came ashore near Dauphin Island Tuesday morning, it was indeed something to tell the grandkids about. According to Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, a Colorado State University researcher who studies tropical …
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FAIRHOPE, Ala. — When Tropical Storm Ida came ashore near Dauphin Island Tuesday morning, it was indeed something to tell the grandkids about. According to Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, a Colorado State University researcher who studies tropical systems, our stretch of the coast is nearly immune to such a late-season dustup.
“The only storm to make landfall in the north central Gulf of Mexico after Nov. 3 was (Hurricane) Kate back in 1985,” he said. “It’s unusual, but not unprecedented.”
That Category 2 storm (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) made landfall near Appalachicola Bay, Fla. on Nov. 21. It killed 15 people and caused around $500 million in damage in Cuba, Florida and Georgia. Kate formed Nov. 15, and reached peak intensity on the 20th, with 120 mph sustained winds.
It was the sixth hurricane to hit the United States during the 1985 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30 each year.
Kate was of particular interest to forecasters, because it became a major hurricane in November, one of only seven storms to do so. Others include the 1912 Jamaica hurricane, the great Cuba hurricane of 1932, Hurricane Greta in 1956, Hurricane Lenny in 1999, Hurricane Michelle in 2001 and Hurricane Paloma in 2008. None of the latter were in the Gulf.
Kate was also the latest major hurricane, and also one of the latest landfalls, as well as the strongest U.S. landfall in November.
Klotzbach said, “Generally this time of the year, the Jet Stream is fairly south, and you get southwesterly (wind) shear.” He pointed out that Ida was affected by that shear, but also weakened because of cooler waters in the northern Gulf.
While the 2009 season has been relatively quiet, thanks in part to El Niño, the 2005 season was especially active, and many storms formed late in the year. The first was recorded on June 8, with the last dissipating Jan. 6, 2006.
A record 28 storms formed in the Atlantic Basin that year, including Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Around 2,280 people died in tropical systems in 2005, and there was around $128 billion in damage.
Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray issued their first extended-range forecast for the 2005 season on Dec. 3, 2004, and predicted a slightly above-average season. They later revised their forecast to include more expected storms when it was learned an El Niño would not form.
The 2005 season was the first when the V and W names were needed, and when official names were tapped out, forecasters used letters from the Greek alphabet. Once they were exhausted, one storm remained unnamed.
CSU researchers will also study the occurrence of Ida.
“From our perspective, we’ll look at what happens and how it formed,” Klotzbach said. “People at the National Hurricane Center are looking at how it formed.”
He went on to mention that Ida did not form in the Gulf of Mexico. Klotzbach said, “If you do see storm formation this time of year, it would tend to form way down there, near Costa Rica.”