Barack Obama may be vacationing, but his vice president selection team remains at work. Obama will make the ultimate selection, and the presumptive Democrat nominee’s choice for VP will tell us much about the candidate himself.

Salient questions include:

Will Obama’s VP selection reinforce his persistent campaign message of change?

Will his choice reflect the political expediency of trying to grab a state, historically red or battleground?

Will Obama try to shore up one or more of the demographic weaknesses uncovered by current polling analysis?

Might the first-term senator use the VP selection to face up to his lack of experience, which is a hard fact that many in his own party privately admit?

Which factors will primarily drive Obama’s choice? That selection may just give us better insight into his thought process, judgment and what Obama values the most.

With the national polls tightening to a virtual dead heat, more of the state-by-state contests that will ultimately decide the electoral vote outcome have moved to undecided, or tossup, as well.

These trends followed Obama’s media marathon trip to the Middle East and Europe, which many Americans deemed to be too much like a post-inaugural world tour. The Obama campaign foolishly affixed a ‘presidential-like’ seal to his teleprompter podiums. All that was missing from the visuals was Air Force One parked in the background, along with salutes as Obama came down the steps.

Party elders now see the huge ego and know they need a safe party stalwart that can provide political continuity for established Democrats and some foreign policy experience to their neophyte standard-bearer.

Among the media’s long list, party elders prefer Biden, Dodd or Bayh. Others include: Senators Clinton, Edwards and Reed; retiring Republican Chuck Hagel; Governors Bill Richardson, Kathleen Sebelius, Tim Kaine and retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

Arguably, Bill Richardson would bring stronger foreign policy credentials, having done a stint as UN Ambassador. He also served in the U.S. House and as Secretary of Energy. Now governor of New Mexico, Richardson is gaining executive experience, while his Hispanic heritage would increase votes for Democrats from some segments of the population.

Senators Jim Webb, Virginia and Jack Reed, Rhode Island could help provide some military gravitas, as former Gen. Wesley Clark would tell Obama he could, too.

John Edwards had been on the list. But, low-level rumors of an extra-marital affair erupted across the media last weekend when Edwards was forced to confirm the truth after previously repeated denials. That scratches Edwards and makes him persona non grata at the Democrat convention in Denver.

And, with reports that Senator Dodd, among others, received preferential mortgage deals for two properties from Countrywide, scratch Dodd, too.

Many view the selection of a Biden, Bayh or Richardson as a double-edged sword for Obama. Any of them add credibility to the ticket; but, each would likely make people ask the telling question: “Shouldn’t the ticket be the other way around?” Democrats know Republicans will point that out repeatedly. So, whose left?

Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, Virginia’s new governor and new senator respectively, can be portrayed by the campaign as part of the change Obama talks about. And, either one could put Virginia’s electoral votes in play. That puts each of them on the shorter list. Webb brings military experience while Kaine, who was an early Obama supporter, is Catholic, a group that could go either way electorally.

Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius is unlikely. She could make the Kansas vote closer but not swing it into the Democrat column; and, selecting a woman other than Hillary would be viewed by the Clintons as a slap in the face.

What about Hillary? She would take it but Obama does not want any part of her or the former president around him if he wins the White House; but, he wants to win.

If, as the convention approaches, current trends continue and the internal calculus moves in Hillary’s direction, however reluctantly, Obama just might accept the reality. The Clintons are keeping the pressure on the campaign and the party, hoping for movement in their direction, however improbable that scenario seems.

So, who are safe picks for Obama that might help swing a state? Bayh, Kaine and Biden are safe picks, in that order. While party elders put Biden first, he often talks too much, and his home state of Delaware voted Democratic last two cycles, so he is third on Obama’s list. Bayh and Kaine are tied on Obama’s list.

On the one hand, if Obama wants to stick with his blank slate change message and leave little for the Republicans and the public, to find in the record, he’ll pick loyalist Kaine. On the other hand, the more Obama feels the need to quietly assuage the growing concerns about his own inexperience, Bayh’s stock goes up. Bayh served two terms as Indiana governor and is in his second term as senator. Bayh puts red-state Indiana in play and helps in neighboring Ohio. Perhaps, most importantly, neither would overshadow Obama.

Richard Olivastro is a member of the National Speakers Association, president of People Dynamics and founder of Citizens For Change. He can be reached at Rich@Olivastro.net or 877-RichSpeaks.