FAIRHOPE, Ala. — Waking up to cooler temperatures Friday morning was a welcome change for many who have been enduring the warm and muggy days of late. Now comes word from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center that a colder than normal winter might be in our future.

Mike Halpert, deputy director of the weather agency (a division of the National Weather Service), said Thursday afternoon that El Niño is expected to impact winter weather, much like it has taken the edge off the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

“It continues to be a quiet hurricane season, and I’m sure everyone is thankful for that,” Halpert said. “Because of El Niño, you can expect a rainy and cool kind of winter.”

The weather phenomenon has set up shop in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook issued this week by the Climate Prediction Center.

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” he said. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jet stream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S. It shifts it farther south. (Cold weather) is not just from arctic air masses.”

Halpert noted that it’s too soon to determine what parts of the country will see the most change. He said, “Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country. Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

Close to home, El Niño may translate into below-average temperatures across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.

Also, above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida, which both dip into lower latitudes than the Alabama coast.

Halpert said the persistence of clouds will prevent the sun from penetrating on some days, keeping the temperature two or three degrees cooler than average. Referring to El Niño, he added, “We see it extending at least through the winter. Whether it sticks around through the spring is anybody’s guess.”

NOAA computer models currently indicate the weather system peaking in early winter, but persisting throughout the season, Halpert said. Some days will likely seem colder, while others might even seem warmer than normal.

“I would almost think the decline of arctic air masses would mean changes in daytime highs, not necessarily nighttime lows,” he said.

One benefit of recent heavy rains and the possibility of a wetter winter is the potential of improving drought conditions in central and southern Texas. The downside is that tornado records indicate that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.

Elsewhere, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center is projecting:

•Drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys.

•Warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the north-central states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.

•Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation in the Northeast. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.

•A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state of California.

•Milder-than-average temperatures in Alaska, except along the western coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-median precipitation for most areas except above median for the northwest.

•Below-average temperatures and precipitation are favored for Hawaii.

NOAA cautions that this seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit, or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.